Report Card 📊
How well the model's probabilities line up with what actually happens.
Early days. Calibration needs a few weeks of games to mean anything — no slates have been graded yet.
Predictions graded
0
0 slates · 10+, 15+, 20+ combined
Brier score
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Lower is better. 0 = perfect, 0.25 = coin flip.
Locks (≥93%)
—
No lock-grade calls yet
Calibration
Bars = actual hit rate in each bin. Line = perfectly calibrated.
Toughest to predict
Avg |predicted − outcome| · min 5 graded slates
Not enough graded games per player yet.